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    Sunday, March 9, 2008

    Friend to foe: Pak forces falter under jihadi fire




    Islamabad may be the national capital of Pakistan, but the country’s real centre of power - the General Headquarters (GHQ) - is just half an hour’s drive away, in the garrison town of Rawalpindi. This is a completely khaki town, with neatly polished staff cars zipping up and down its wide roads, heavily armed guards standing like statues at the gates of British-era military buildings and smartly dressed officers and men going about their work in a hurried and nervous manner.

    With its heavy razor-wire fences and tall and muscular armymen on patrol, it should be the safest town in the "most dangerous place in the world".

    But it’s not. As the war with the Taliban and al-Qaida on the country’s north-west fringes moves to the heart of the nation, it’s the immaculate streets of Pindi that have been awash with blood and enveloped by fear, and the GHQ - obsessed with the ‘real enemy’ on the eastern front for the past 60 years - looks shaken and confused by the ferocity of attacks from the enemy who lurks within.

    Last week, as Lt Gen Mushtaq Baig, chief of army medical services, was blown to bits by a teenaged suicide bomber in the heart of the Rawalpindi cantonment, Pakistan’s worst fears were confirmed once again: the militants were determined to attack the core of the Pakistani army.

    And the Army is not ready for this deadly game with the people it has patronised, nurtured and guided in the past. Though it has been involved in a high-voltage battle of nerves with militants in the NWFP, it has gained little ground against them.

    The militants are elusive and deeply motivated, and there have even been incidents of some army units willingly surrendering to the heavily armed militia rather than fight them.

    The reason for this debacle is quite simple. Trained to fight conventional war with the Indian army in the mountains of Kashmir, the plains of Punjab and the desert of Rajasthan, the Pakistani army struggles and fumbles as it takes on battle-hardened guerrillas in the treacherous terrain of the Pashtun belt.

    There’s another reason: Since 1947, generations of Pakistani army have been trained, motivated and indoctrinated to fight India. Just like in jingoistic Bollywood flicks, the word enemy always had only one meaning in the barracks of the Pakistani army. Explaining the Pakistani establishment’s perception of India in a recent interview, Ayesha Siddiqa, author of Military Inc: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy , said: "India is an enemy, it is about to eat us up. We have to challenge it."

    It’s probably this mindset that explains the ‘misuse’ of more than $5 billion given by the US to the Pakistani military to fight the Al-Qaida and Taliban in its restive border areas with Afghanistan. In a report published last year, US military officials said they believed that much of the American money had been diverted to help finance weapons systems designed to counter India.

    The American accusation led to a war of words between Islamabad and Washington, with the Pakistanis accusing the Americans of ingratitude and the Americans in turn charging them with not doing enough to counter the Al-Qaida "which was expanding its influence from the remote border regions into the more populated parts of Pakistan".

    "The Pakistanis are damn good fighters," says a retired Indian Army officer who saw action on the western front in 1971. "But unlike us, counter-insurgency is not their strength. It’s a different ballgame altogether. They have to shift their focus from India if they want to defeat the militants in the mountains."

    This is precisely what the Americans have been telling Islamabad. In recent weeks as the country voted in the general elections and President Pervez Musharraf stood defeated and isolated, some top US officials - CIA director Michael Hayden, deputy secretary of state John Negroponte and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Admiral Mike Mullen - flew down to Islamabad, offering to train Pakistan’s Frontier Corps in anti-guerrilla operations and trying to persuade army chief Gen

    Ashfaq Kayani to switch from training in conventional warfare to counter-insurgency operations. The general reportedly agreed with the Americans’ viewpoint.

    But even if Gen Kayani manages to shift the focus of his army’s training, it’s not going to be easy to win this battle, for an entirely different reason. Because of the heavy dose of religion during training and the army’s symbiotic relationship with religious extremists in the past, the soldier on the front is not convinced he is fighting the right battle. Trained to fight the ‘big enemy’, the soldiers are getting a bit confused as they take on the people who once fought alongside them.

    "Even before the Taliban, we engaged with non-state actors and militants," says Siddiqa. "Who fought the war in 1947-48? We got those tribal warriors from Waziristan primarily to fight. In 1965 again, we used jihadis." In addition, the army also used religious extremists to defeat its political opponents. Now they are in a Catch-22 situation. Though Pakistan joined the US war on terror after the threat of being "bombed back to the Stone Age", its army is not ready - militarily and mentally - to fight the enemy’s enemy which has turned its guns on its former patron.

    shobhan.saxena@timesgroup.com

    Tuesday, March 4, 2008

    Finance ministers voice concerns about euro



    By Tony Barber in Brussels

    Published: March 4 2008 11:19 | Last updated: March 4 2008 11:19

    European finance ministers on Tuesday made clear their growing concern about the euro’s strength against the dollar, but said they had not pressed for co-ordinated central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets.

    Ministers from the 15 eurozone countries issued a statement on Monday night saying: “In current circumstances, we are concerned about exchange rate moves… We don’t think the recent moves are reflecting economic fundamentals.”

    They were reacting to the euro’s rise on Monday to $1.5275, the highest level it has touched since its launch in 1999. The euro has risen by 16 per cent against the dollar in the past year and is also stronger than some eurozone governments prefer against the yen and Chinese renminbi.

    Financial market commentators noted that the eurozone statement was similar in tone to that used before the European Central Bank intervened in support of the euro in September 2000.

    On Monday ministers drew attention to the fact that Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, had emphasised before going in to the talks that the US authorities had said it was in the US national interest to have a strong dollar.

    This was interpreted in financial markets as a warning signal from Mr Trichet about the dollar’s most recent slide against the dollar.

    But on Tuesday at least one finance minister, George Alogoskoufis of Greece, said there had been no discussion among his colleagues of joint currency market intervention by the ECB and the US Federal Reserve. “No, no, there was no discussion of that,” he said.

    He added: “There is a slight increase in the attention we are giving to currency market developments, because the turbulence continues and this is not something we want. But it does not mean anything dramatic…This is a global problem, it is not a European problem. I don’t think there is anything we can do on our own.”

    Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of the eurozone finance ministers’ group, also avoided commenting on possible central bank intervention, saying: “I don’t think it would be wise to offer targets to financial markets.”

    Some eurozone countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, contend there are certain advantages in the euro’s strength, in that it is helping to contain inflation, currently at a 14-year high. In addition, they see little impact on the eurozone’s export performance.

    Although the European Commission last month cut its 2008 economic growth forecasts for the eurozone, José Manuel Barroso, the Commission president, said on Tuesday the outlook was by no means bleak.

    “We face economic headwinds that a few years ago might have been strong enough to sink us. But today Europe is continuing to grow and create jobs. Our employment rate at 66 per cent is our highest ever, and our unemployment rate at 6.9 per cent is the lowest for 25 years,” he said.